CILT Friday Factsheet 3
Well, I hope that you and your family are coping with your isolation. Just some more holiday reading….
When we hear some relevant supply – chain information, we will produce a Friday Factsheet for members. Please provide any updates that we can circulate to others.
For back issues of this Factsheet, go to www.cilt.co.nz and log on to the members’ section.
| Relief Truck Drivers | 250 relief drivers have so far registered on a National Road Carriers Association database to cover drivers who become ill or choose not to work during the coronavirus pandemic. The drivers will be available at short notice – and there are no concerns about vehicle shortages. |
| Prioritising urgent imported cargo | Port of Tauranga has announced new measures to prioritise urgent imported cargo. The measures allow importers to identify cargo for essential services before it arrives in NZ, so it is handled and transported first, during the national lockdown. “We take our role as an essential service very seriously and our focus is to ensure vital food, medical and other supplies can keep moving.” The port’s chief executive Mark Cairns said, in a written press release. “We also understand the stresses and strains on people and organisations trying to deal with the current situation, which has seen shipping delays, cancellations and other disruptions.” Non-essential cargo would avoid dwell charges until April 26 2020. |
| Non-essential LCL cargo | As far as I’m aware only essential goods are being loaded into containers and being shipped. There were, of course, many already in the pipeline at the time level 4 came into effect, but these can be removed from the port and stored until such time as they can be delivered. So they shouldn’t be blocking up ports going forward. – Cheers Dave Anderson (Cubic Transport) |
| How are Foodstuffs coping? | Listen to a podcast with Foodstuffs CEO Chris Quin – very interesting |
| Recent Supply Chain Difficulties | CILT is currently investigating the supply chain of flour distribution to supermarkets to identify the reason why supermarket shelves have been lacking on items like flour for a couple of weeks. While there are rumours about lack of packaging materials not arriving from China to a disruption of coordination amongst stakeholders, traditionally focused on a supply chain with the hospitality industry and bakeries. Since supermarkets only represented only a single digital figure in the past, there is a likelihood that infrastructure or supply chain for increased demand for small customers has not yet been dealt with properly. Hopefully, the next newsletter can clarify. Anyone having useful information, please forward it to Jean-Paul Thull ( jean-paul@thull.co.nz) How can we stay 2 metres apart in a supermarket aisle that is only 2.5mt wide? With online orders taking a week for delivery, many people are concerned about buying perishable goods online. With many small food retailers forced to close, only those suppliers that supply supermarkets are able to sell their products. Other suppliers may disappear which will only strengthen the (largely) duopoly that exists with NZ supermarkets. This decrease in competition may result in wastage and higher retail prices. |
| Salary Survey Results | The Michael Page Salary Survey is now available. We have put the pdf in the members section for you … . interesting reading…. |
| Australian Banking & Wealth Summit 30th March 2020 | Deloitte say 1 million jobs lost last week in Australia; unemployment heading to 12% 13,000, ANZ SME clients already reached out for payment deferrals. AU banks have never had so much capital so are well placed to absorb shocks Crisis could last 3-6 months; banks are ready to rebound Will be greater focus on risk management in the future Less emphasis on branches as no foot traffic. Focus on internet banking Less office space capacity required as more staff working from home Success will boil down to leadership and striving for common objectives Expecting 300,000 Australians to take out superannuation early – can just take $20k China will be the strongest economy this year |
| What does Westpac NZ think? | Forecasting a drop in GDP for March and June quarters of 15% but a rise by 10% in September quarter Unemployment rate will peak at 9% but back to 4% in Q3 2022 Property price drop of 7%; with price inflation of 8% in 2021 and 12% in 2022 Recovery will be swift but could still take years Government debt to raise from 18% of GDP to 40% by 2022 NZ recovery will be hampered by the slow speed of other economies |
| Life after the lockdown | “Experts are already contemplating…. Expect a new “baby-boomers” impact in around Christmas 2020. Internationally, the outbreak of the virus will naturally slow as the northern hemisphere move into their summer. However, if we try to go back to normal too quickly, the second wave of infections is likely to result. Supermarkets historically account for 60% of food sales – with the lockdown, this is much higher. The lockdown will force people to remember how to cook food at home – after the lockdown, it may be sometime before the sales and restaurants bounce back to where they were. Supermarkets share prices will reflect this change. Processes and equipment have been quickly cobbled together to enable people to work from home. With more people having experienced working from home it is likely that this will continue for many in the future. This different working style will require different leadership styles. Likewise, with online shopping – the virus will accelerate the movement towards online shopping. International business travel may never recover as further reliance will be put on on-line communication tools. Fewer international students until year commencing 2023. Decreased flights will see decreases in air freight options – resulting in higher prices. The locally-produced product will be favoured above internationally – sourced product due to pricing and a “buy local” culture. Despite assurances from Donald Trump, the impact of a world recession (partly caused by the reduction in tourist numbers) will still be felt in 2021 and probably 2022 / 2023. Some say, it could take a decade! At least in the short term, this “wake up call” will encourage some people to increase their “rainy-day money” reducing consumption. This could have positive effects on the environment. It may take 18 months for a vaccine to be commercially available. Covid-19 is likely to followed by a new strain – however, the world will be better prepared next time. Heavily modified from an article from Chris Stokel-Walker 25.03.20 — heavily modified from an article by Chris Stokel-Walker 25-03-2020 |
| How will our tourism start again? | I am hoping that our government already has a couple of boffins who are remotely meeting to discuss how we start tourism again. My guess is that we start by just allowing either the Australians or Chinese in….will they have to be tested before they leave then again when they arrive? Obviously, this wouldn’t happen in time for our skiing season but my optimistic mind has me pondering “is there a chance that selective markets could be invited back for our summer?” ….. too early to tell…. |
More information please…
Most of this information was provided to CILT through speaking to our members; if you have anything to add, please let me know – keith@dharmaadvisory.com
Stay safe.
Keith Robinson
CILT NZ President
3rd April 2020